The Impact of Horse Race Reporting on Elections
A horse race is a competition between a number of horses, usually ridden by jockeys or pulled by sulkies and their drivers. The aim is for them to complete a circuit of the course as quickly as possible while maintaining a certain level of speed. The word is also used in politics to refer to the process of electioneering, where politicians compete with one another for voters’ attention and votes. The term is especially popular in the United States, where elections are compared to horse races.
Whether or not you like the sport of horse racing, there are lessons that apply to the practice of news journalism. For example, in both horse races and political polling, it is important to remember that there is always a margin of error. It is also important to keep in mind that the underdogs can win, much as a horse racing columnist once advised his readers not to dismiss long shots in their recommendations.
In recent years, scholars have delved into the impact of what is known as horse race reporting in news coverage. This type of reporting, characterized by a disproportionate focus on two candidates chasing each other in the polls, can harm voters and third-party candidates, discourage voter turnout and lead to heightened levels of public cynicism about both politics and policy issues. It is particularly harmful when it comes to quick-hit political polls, which are often conducted in swing states and require minimal financial resources.
A key component of horse race reporting is probabilistic forecasting, which uses data from multiple opinion polls to determine a candidate’s chances of winning. This approach has been used in news outlets such as FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times and HuffPost to make predictions about the outcome of an election. However, the authors of this research find that probabilistic forecasting encourages voter apathy and may actually discourage voting in general by presenting an unrealistically optimistic picture of a candidate’s prospects.
While it is essential to provide context to readers, a more important challenge is to go beyond number-crunching and examine the material costs of horse race reporting. For instance, a horse that breaks down during a race is a major event, but what’s less visible is the daily toll on the thoroughbred population, which is the backbone of America’s horse industry.
Despite these concerns, horse race reporting remains a popular form of news coverage, and it’s not going anywhere. News consumers are spoiled for choice when it comes to deciding which outlet they will visit or what they will read, and the First Amendment protects their right to free speech and the freedom of the press. Nevertheless, the authors of this research hope that the findings of their study will encourage people to think critically about the content they encounter and consider the wider consequences of their choices.